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FK Beograd vs South Adelaide Panthers — South Australia NPL 2026

FK Beograd
FK Beograd
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
South Adelaide Panthers
South Adelaide Panthers
4/8/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 7Frank Mitchell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FK Beograd50%
×Draw21%
South Adelaide Panthers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Beograd
2.10
South Adelaide Panthers
1.58

FK Beograd creates 33% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 52 away

creates per match

FK Beograd
1.75
South Adelaide Panthers
1.60

allows per match

FK Beograd
1.55
South Adelaide Panthers
2.46

finishing

FK Beograd+0.00on par
South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Beograd ↓

South Adelaide Panthers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FK Beograd or draw
71%
FK Beograd or South Adelaide Panthers
79%
Draw or South Adelaide Panthers
50%

Winning margin

FK Beograd wins by 2+
29%
South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Beograd 1+ goals
88%
FK Beograd 2+ goals
62%
FK Beograd 3+ goals
35%
South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals
79%
South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals
47%
South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FK Beograd (draw refunded)
63%
South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Beograd at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

South Adelaide Panthers away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Beograd attack 1.75 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.10

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.60 + FK Beograd defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Beograd scores more
50%
level
21%
South Adelaide Panthers scores more
29%

FK Beograd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Beograd vs South Adelaide Panthers

FK Beograd beat South Adelaide Panthers 4-1 in South Australia NPL on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Frank Mitchell Park in Adelaide.