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South Adelaide Panthers vs Adelaide Raiders — South Australia NPL 2026

South Adelaide Panthers
South Adelaide Panthers
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide Raiders
3/22/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 4O'Sullivans Beach Sports & Community Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

South Adelaide Panthers36%
×Draw21%
Adelaide Raiders43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Adelaide Panthers
1.80
Adelaide Raiders
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 54 away

creates per match

South Adelaide Panthers
1.54
Adelaide Raiders
1.59

allows per match

South Adelaide Panthers
2.35
Adelaide Raiders
2.07

finishing

South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par
Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Adelaide Panthers ↓

Adelaide Raiders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

South Adelaide Panthers or draw
57%
South Adelaide Panthers or Adelaide Raiders
79%
Draw or Adelaide Raiders
64%

Winning margin

South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+
18%
Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals
83%
South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals
54%
South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals
27%
Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals
86%
Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals
58%
Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)
46%
Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Adelaide Panthers at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

Adelaide Raiders away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.54 + Adelaide Raiders defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.80

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.59 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

South Adelaide Panthers scores more
36%
level
21%
Adelaide Raiders scores more
43%

Adelaide Raiders at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Adelaide Panthers vs Adelaide Raiders

Adelaide Raiders beat South Adelaide Panthers 4-3 in South Australia NPL on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at O'Sullivans Beach Sports & Community Centre in Adelaide.