Adelaide Raiders 4–4 South Adelaide Panthers

Adelaide Raiders

FT

4 – 4

South Adelaide Panthers

8/13/2021

South Australia NPL · Round 17Croatian Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Adelaide Raiders45%

×Draw22%

South Adelaide Panthers33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide RaidersExpected goals in this matchSouth Adelaide Panthers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.61

Adelaide Raiders

1.92

South Adelaide Panthers

1.61

Adelaide Raiders creates 19% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

1.38

creates per match

1.60

1.63

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Adelaide Raiders

1.38

South Adelaide Panthers

1.60

allows per match

Adelaide Raiders

1.63

South Adelaide Panthers

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Raiders ↓

South Adelaide Panthers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Adelaide Raiders or draw

67%

Adelaide Raiders or South Adelaide Panthers

78%

Draw or South Adelaide Panthers

55%

Winning margin

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

25%

South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

85%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

57%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

30%

South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals

80%

South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals

48%

South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

58%

South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Raiders at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

South Adelaide Panthers away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.38 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.92

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.60 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Adelaide Raiders scores more

45%

level

22%

South Adelaide Panthers scores more

33%

Adelaide Raiders at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff