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South Adelaide Panthers vs Adelaide Comets — South Australia NPL 2026

South Adelaide Panthers
South Adelaide Panthers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets
8/11/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 22O'Sullivans Beach Sports & Community Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

South Adelaide Panthers30%
×Draw22%
Adelaide Comets48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Adelaide Panthers
1.54
Adelaide Comets
1.97

Adelaide Comets creates 28% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 88 away

creates per match

South Adelaide Panthers
1.54
Adelaide Comets
1.59

allows per match

South Adelaide Panthers
2.35
Adelaide Comets
1.55

finishing

South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par
Adelaide Comets+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Adelaide Panthers ↓

Adelaide Comets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

South Adelaide Panthers or draw
52%
South Adelaide Panthers or Adelaide Comets
78%
Draw or Adelaide Comets
70%

Winning margin

South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+
14%
Adelaide Comets wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals
79%
South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals
45%
South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals
20%
Adelaide Comets 1+ goals
86%
Adelaide Comets 2+ goals
58%
Adelaide Comets 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)
39%
Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Adelaide Panthers at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

Adelaide Comets away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.54 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Adelaide Comets attack 1.59 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

South Adelaide Panthers scores more
30%
level
22%
Adelaide Comets scores more
48%

Adelaide Comets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: South Adelaide Panthers 1–2 Adelaide Comets

Adelaide Comets beat South Adelaide Panthers 2-1 in South Australia NPL on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at O'Sullivans Beach Sports & Community Centre in Adelaide.