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Adelaide Comets vs South Adelaide Panthers — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
South Adelaide Panthers
South Adelaide Panthers
6/25/2022South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 16ServiceFM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Adelaide Comets54%
×Draw21%
South Adelaide Panthers25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Comets
2.11
South Adelaide Panthers
1.37

Adelaide Comets creates 54% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 52 away

creates per match

Adelaide Comets
1.76
South Adelaide Panthers
1.60

allows per match

Adelaide Comets
1.14
South Adelaide Panthers
2.46

finishing

Adelaide Comets+0.00on par
South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Comets ↓

South Adelaide Panthers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Adelaide Comets or draw
75%
Adelaide Comets or South Adelaide Panthers
79%
Draw or South Adelaide Panthers
46%

Winning margin

Adelaide Comets wins by 2+
32%
South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Adelaide Comets 1+ goals
88%
Adelaide Comets 2+ goals
62%
Adelaide Comets 3+ goals
35%
South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals
75%
South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals
40%
South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)
69%
South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Comets at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

South Adelaide Panthers away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Comets attack 1.76 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.11

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.60 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Adelaide Comets scores more
54%
level
21%
South Adelaide Panthers scores more
25%

Adelaide Comets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Adelaide Comets 2–0 South Adelaide Panthers

Adelaide Comets beat South Adelaide Panthers 2-0 in South Australia NPL on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at ServiceFM Stadium in Adelaide.