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Sousa vs Nacional de Patos — Serie D 2026

Sousa
Sousa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nacional de Patos
Nacional de Patos
7/9/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Governador Antônio Mariz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sousa50%
×Draw29%
Nacional de Patos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sousa
1.28
Nacional de Patos
0.71

Sousa creates 80% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sousa
1.45
Nacional de Patos
0.56

allows per match

Sousa
0.86
Nacional de Patos
1.11

finishing

Sousa+0.00on par
Nacional de Patos+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sousa ↓

Nacional de Patos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sousa or draw
79%
Sousa or Nacional de Patos
71%
Draw or Nacional de Patos
50%

Winning margin

Sousa wins by 2+
23%
Nacional de Patos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sousa 1+ goals
72%
Sousa 2+ goals
37%
Sousa 3+ goals
14%
Nacional de Patos 1+ goals
51%
Nacional de Patos 2+ goals
16%
Nacional de Patos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sousa (draw refunded)
71%
Nacional de Patos (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sousa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Nacional de Patos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sousa attack 1.45 + Nacional de Patos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Nacional de Patos attack 0.56 + Sousa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sousa scores more
50%
level
29%
Nacional de Patos scores more
21%

Sousa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sousa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sousa vs Nacional de Patos

Sousa beat Nacional de Patos 1-0 in Serie D on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Antônio Mariz in Sousa, Paraíba.