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Nacional de Patos vs Sousa — Serie D 2026

Nacional de Patos
Nacional de Patos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sousa
Sousa
5/21/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio José Cavalcanti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nacional de Patos59%
×Draw25%
Sousa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional de Patos
1.57
Sousa
0.68

Nacional de Patos creates 131% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 44 away

creates per match

Nacional de Patos
1.78
Sousa
0.68

allows per match

Nacional de Patos
0.67
Sousa
1.36

finishing

Nacional de Patos+0.00on par
Sousa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional de Patos ↓

Sousa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nacional de Patos or draw
84%
Nacional de Patos or Sousa
75%
Draw or Sousa
41%

Winning margin

Nacional de Patos wins by 2+
32%
Sousa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nacional de Patos 1+ goals
79%
Nacional de Patos 2+ goals
46%
Nacional de Patos 3+ goals
21%
Sousa 1+ goals
49%
Sousa 2+ goals
15%
Sousa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nacional de Patos (draw refunded)
79%
Sousa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional de Patos at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Sousa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional de Patos attack 1.78 + Sousa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sousa attack 0.68 + Nacional de Patos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nacional de Patos scores more
59%
level
25%
Sousa scores more
16%

Nacional de Patos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nacional de Patos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional de Patos vs Sousa

Nacional de Patos beat Sousa 1-0 in Serie D on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Cavalcanti in Patos, Paraíba.