Sousa 0–0 Central SC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Sousa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Central SC

Uesles 75'

4/27/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Governador Antônio Mariz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sousa44%

×Draw30%

Central SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SousaExpected goals in this matchCentral SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.85

Sousa

1.20

Central SC

0.85

Sousa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 37 away

1.45

creates per match

0.84

0.86

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Sousa

1.45

Central SC

0.84

allows per match

Sousa

0.86

Central SC

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sousa+0.00on par

Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sousa ↓

Central SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sousa or draw

74%

Sousa or Central SC

70%

Draw or Central SC

56%

Winning margin

Sousa wins by 2+

19%

Central SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sousa 1+ goals

70%

Sousa 2+ goals

34%

Sousa 3+ goals

12%

Central SC 1+ goals

57%

Central SC 2+ goals

21%

Central SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sousa (draw refunded)

63%

Central SC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sousa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sousa attack 1.45 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Central SC attack 0.84 + Sousa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sousa scores more

44%

level

30%

Central SC scores more

26%

Sousa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sousa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

Uesles

Sousa

Central

⚽

Manager: Francisco Diá

Sousa substitutes

NunesMatheusinhoBastosWellissonSouzaHenriqueDayvsonGustavinhoSantosRafaelJoelsonNeto

Manager: Leandro Sena

Central SC substitutes

JefinhoLeozynhoTauanBrandãoTanakaBennêSilvaJanelsonNatanael