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Central SC vs Sousa — Serie D 2026

Central SC
Central SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sousa
Sousa
Diego Aragao 90'
Tomas Dias 72'
Marcelo 88'
Felipe Jacare 37'
7/20/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 13Estadio Luiz Jose de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Central SC52%
×Draw29%
Sousa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central SC
1.33
Sousa
0.70

Central SC creates 90% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 44 away

creates per match

Central SC
1.29
Sousa
0.68

allows per match

Central SC
0.71
Sousa
1.36

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par
Sousa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 63Yes: 3763%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

Sousa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Central SC or draw
80%
Central SC or Sousa
71%
Draw or Sousa
48%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+
25%
Sousa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals
74%
Central SC 2+ goals
38%
Central SC 3+ goals
15%
Sousa 1+ goals
50%
Sousa 2+ goals
16%
Sousa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)
72%
Sousa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Sousa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + Sousa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sousa attack 0.68 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Central SC scores more
52%
level
29%
Sousa scores more
20%

Central SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Felipe Jacare
72'
72'
Tomas Dias
88'
Marcelo
89'
90'
Diego Aragao
Central
Sousa
Leandro Sena
Manager: Leandro Sena
Francisco Diá
Manager: Francisco Diá

Match Recap: Central SC vs Sousa

Central SC and Sousa drew 1-1 in Serie D on July 20, 2025.

Goals: Felipe Jacare (37'), Tomas Dias (72'), Marcelo (88'), Diego Aragao (90').

The match was played at Estadio Luiz Jose de Lacerda in Caruaru.