Sotra 2–2 Notodden: Result & Stats

Sotra

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Notodden

E. Kjørsvik 45'

H. Foldnes 36' (pen)

M. Frithzell 67' (pen)

S. Jørgensen 5'

10/8/2022

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Straume stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sotra53%

×Draw22%

Notodden25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SotraExpected goals in this matchNotodden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.29

Sotra

1.98

Notodden

1.29

Sotra creates 53% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

2.11

creates per match

1.28

1.31

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sotra

2.11

Notodden

1.28

allows per match

Sotra

1.31

Notodden

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sotra+0.00on par

Notodden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sotra ↓

Notodden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sotra or draw

75%

Sotra or Notodden

78%

Draw or Notodden

47%

Winning margin

Sotra wins by 2+

31%

Notodden wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sotra 1+ goals

86%

Sotra 2+ goals

59%

Sotra 3+ goals

31%

Notodden 1+ goals

72%

Notodden 2+ goals

37%

Notodden 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sotra (draw refunded)

68%

Notodden (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sotra at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Notodden away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sotra attack 2.11 + Notodden defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Notodden attack 1.28 + Sotra defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sotra scores more

53%

level

22%

Notodden scores more

25%

Sotra at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

S. Jørgensen

36'

H. FoldnesPenalty

45'

E. Kjørsvik

46'

Y. Moula← E. Kjørsvik

62'

T. Kvalvagnes Guddal

67'

M. FrithzellPenalty

68'

E. Hinsta← S. Jørgensen

87'

O. Herrem← H. Andersen

88'

J. Jonassen← M. Bækken

Sotra

Notodden

1

4

6

3

15

11

14

22

⚽

▼

Jørgensen

21

Tjomsland

9

⚽

Frithzell

20

▼

Bækken

1

Grasmo

8

⚽

2

13

10

9

▼

5

6

19

20

22

⚽

▼

Kjørsvik

Manager: R. Blindhelm

46'▲Y. Moula←▼E. Kjørsvik

87'▲O. Herrem←▼H. Andersen

Sotra substitutes

11Moula4Herrem12Johansson3Brudvik18Dolzenko23Røttingen25Kolbjørnsen24Sagstad27Horneland

Manager: M. Erga

68'▲E. Hinsta←▼S. Jørgensen

88'▲J. Jonassen←▼M. Bækken

Notodden substitutes

8Hinsta24Jonassen5Pop12Finnestrand16Kisaruko

Match Recap: Sotra vs Notodden

Sotra and Notodden drew 2-2 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 8, 2022.

Goals: S. Jørgensen (5'), H. Foldnes (36' pen), E. Kjørsvik (45'), M. Frithzell (67' pen).

The match was played at Straume stadion in Sotra.

Sotra vs Notodden — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sotra vs Notodden