Notodden 1–1 Sotra: Result & Stats

Notodden

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sotra

A. Kaszuba 11'

S. Wik 55'

9/13/2025

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Idrettsparken Notodden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Notodden38%

×Draw27%

Sotra35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NotoddenExpected goals in this matchSotra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Notodden

1.31

Sotra

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 44 away

1.39

creates per match

1.27

1.23

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Notodden

1.39

Sotra

1.27

allows per match

Notodden

1.23

Sotra

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notodden+0.00on par

Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notodden ↓

Sotra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Notodden or draw

65%

Notodden or Sotra

73%

Draw or Sotra

62%

Winning margin

Notodden wins by 2+

17%

Sotra wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Notodden 1+ goals

73%

Notodden 2+ goals

38%

Notodden 3+ goals

14%

Sotra 1+ goals

71%

Sotra 2+ goals

36%

Sotra 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Notodden (draw refunded)

52%

Sotra (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notodden at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Sotra away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notodden attack 1.39 + Sotra defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sotra attack 1.27 + Notodden defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Notodden scores more

38%

level

27%

Sotra scores more

35%

Notodden at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Notodden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

38'

45'

46'

46'

B. Mvuka← O. M. Davoy Skar

55'

S. Wik

60'

J. Hoviskeland← F. Falck

65'

A. Kaszuba

66'

T. Nordbo← B. Singh

66'

C. Sorum← A. Kaszuba

74'

S. Larsen← J. Hammerli

74'

J. Ulsnes← B. Bjerkan

79'

J. Hoviskeland

Notodden

Sotra

1

Grasmo

2

Ree

8

Foldnes

17

▼

Skar

20

Torum

5

▼

Koko

11

Heltne

24

Larsen

6

⚽

Wik

7

▼

10

1

3

4

▼

18

19

8

14

29

▼

Singh

10

Singh

20

▼

Bjerkan

27

⚽

▼

Kaszuba

Manager: S. Hansen

66'▲T. Nordbo←▼B. Singh

66'▲C. Sorum←▼A. Kaszuba

74'▲S. Larsen←▼J. Hammerli

74'▲J. Ulsnes←▼B. Bjerkan

Notodden substitutes

31Straand5Ahmed6Larsen7Ulsnes15Rasberg21Nesland22Nordbo99Sorum

Manager: R. Blindhelm

46'▲A. Johansen←▼J. Koko

46'▲B. Mvuka←▼O. M. Davoy Skar

60'▲J. Hoviskeland←▼F. Falck

Sotra substitutes

16Sulen3Johansen9Hoviskeland15Haaland18Oren22Bildoy86Mvuka