Sortland 1–4 Gamle Oslo: Result & Stats

Sortland

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Gamle Oslo

A. Ottesen 88'

V. Prokop 90' (OG)

F. Hansen 78'

S. Sorlie 76'

J. Valstad 47'

10/11/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 24Blåbyhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sortland25%

×Draw18%

Gamle Oslo57%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SortlandExpected goals in this matchGamle Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.70

Sortland

1.77

Gamle Oslo

2.70

Gamle Oslo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.31

creates per match

2.39

3.00

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sortland

1.31

Gamle Oslo

2.39

allows per match

Sortland

3.00

Gamle Oslo

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sortland+0.00on par

Gamle Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sortland ↓

Gamle Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Sortland or draw

43%

Sortland or Gamle Oslo

82%

Draw or Gamle Oslo

75%

Winning margin

Sortland wins by 2+

12%

Gamle Oslo wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Sortland 1+ goals

83%

Sortland 2+ goals

53%

Sortland 3+ goals

26%

Gamle Oslo 1+ goals

93%

Gamle Oslo 2+ goals

75%

Gamle Oslo 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Sortland (draw refunded)

30%

Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sortland at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Gamle Oslo away — creates 2.39, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sortland attack 1.31 + Gamle Oslo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gamle Oslo attack 2.39 + Sortland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sortland scores more

25%

level

18%

Gamle Oslo scores more

57%

Gamle Oslo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

J. Valstad

66'

J. Berg

66'

J. Berg

73'

E. Pedersen

73'

E. Pedersen

76'

S. Sorlie

78'

F. Hansen

88'

A. Ottesen

90'

V. ProkopOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff