Gamle Oslo 5–1 Sortland: Result & Stats

Gamle Oslo

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Sortland

F. Hansen 53'

D. Tavakoli 38', 27'

E. Jammeh 33'

F. Sowe 31'

T. Knudsen 22'

6/15/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 10Vallhall Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gamle Oslo76%

×Draw12%

Sortland11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamle OsloExpected goals in this matchSortland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.70

1.44

Gamle Oslo

3.70

Sortland

1.44

Gamle Oslo creates 157% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

3.40

creates per match

1.23

1.65

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Gamle Oslo

3.40

Sortland

1.23

allows per match

Gamle Oslo

1.65

Sortland

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamle Oslo+0.00on par

Sortland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamle Oslo ↓

Sortland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Gamle Oslo or draw

89%

Gamle Oslo or Sortland

88%

Draw or Sortland

24%

Winning margin

Gamle Oslo wins by 2+

59%

Sortland wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gamle Oslo 1+ goals

97%

Gamle Oslo 2+ goals

87%

Gamle Oslo 3+ goals

69%

Sortland 1+ goals

76%

Sortland 2+ goals

42%

Sortland 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)

87%

Sortland (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamle Oslo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Sortland away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamle Oslo attack 3.40 + Sortland defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.70

Sortland attack 1.23 + Gamle Oslo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Gamle Oslo scores more

76%

level

12%

Sortland scores more

11%

Gamle Oslo at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

27'

31'

33'

38'

53'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff