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Sortland vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Sortland
Sortland
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
S. Aronsen 45'
M. Abelsen 21' (pen)
S. A. Butt 78', 45'
M. Rismoen 71', 66'
8/30/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 18Blåbyhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sortland34%
×Draw20%
Funnefoss / Vormsund46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sortland
1.98
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.30

Funnefoss / Vormsund creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sortland
1.31
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.60

allows per match

Sortland
3.00
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.65

finishing

Sortland+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sortland ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sortland or draw
54%
Sortland or Funnefoss / Vormsund
80%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
66%

Winning margin

Sortland wins by 2+
18%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sortland 1+ goals
86%
Sortland 2+ goals
59%
Sortland 3+ goals
31%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
90%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
67%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Sortland (draw refunded)
43%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sortland at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sortland attack 1.31 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.98

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Sortland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sortland scores more
34%
level
20%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
46%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. AbelsenPenalty
45'
S. A. Butt
45'
S. Aronsen
66'
M. Rismoen
71'
M. Rismoen
78'
S. A. Butt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Sortland 2–4 Funnefoss / Vormsund

Funnefoss / Vormsund beat Sortland 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Abelsen (21' pen), S. A. Butt (45', 78'), S. Aronsen (45'), M. Rismoen (66', 71').

The match was played at Blåbyhallen in Sortland.