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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Sortland — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sortland
Sortland
M. Soreide 56', 32'
M. Abelsen 36', 6'
7/6/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 13Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund60%
×Draw18%
Sortland23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.81
Sortland
1.72

Funnefoss / Vormsund creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.63
Sortland
1.23

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.21
Sortland
4.00

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
Sortland+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Sortland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
77%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or Sortland
82%
Draw or Sortland
40%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
40%
Sortland wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
94%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
76%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
52%
Sortland 1+ goals
82%
Sortland 2+ goals
51%
Sortland 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
73%
Sortland (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

Sortland away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.63 + Sortland defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.81

Sortland attack 1.23 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
60%
level
18%
Sortland scores more
23%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. Abelsen
32'
M. Soreide
36'
M. Abelsen
56'
M. Soreide

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Sortland

Funnefoss / Vormsund and Sortland drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on July 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Abelsen (6', 36'), M. Soreide (32', 56').

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.