Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sortland vs Frigg — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Sortland
Sortland
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Frigg
Frigg
5/25/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 7Blåbyhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sortland18%
×Draw16%
Frigg66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sortland
1.51
Frigg
2.97

Frigg creates 97% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sortland
1.31
Frigg
2.94

allows per match

Sortland
3.00
Frigg
1.71

finishing

Sortland+0.00on par
Frigg+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sortland ↓

Frigg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sortland or draw
34%
Sortland or Frigg
84%
Draw or Frigg
82%

Winning margin

Sortland wins by 2+
7%
Frigg wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Sortland 1+ goals
78%
Sortland 2+ goals
44%
Sortland 3+ goals
19%
Frigg 1+ goals
95%
Frigg 2+ goals
79%
Frigg 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Sortland (draw refunded)
21%
Frigg (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sortland at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Frigg away — creates 2.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sortland attack 1.31 + Frigg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

Frigg attack 2.94 + Sortland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sortland scores more
18%
level
16%
Frigg scores more
66%

Frigg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sortland vs Frigg

Frigg beat Sortland 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Blåbyhallen in Sortland.