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Frigg vs Sortland — 3. Division - Girone 1 2022

Frigg
Frigg
FT
10 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sortland
Sortland
U. Ferrer 90', 79', 77', 50', 31', 15'
S. Barane 69', 23'
B. Eie 61', 56'
8/24/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 17Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frigg78%
×Draw11%
Sortland10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg
3.92
Sortland
1.45

Frigg creates 170% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frigg
3.85
Sortland
1.23

allows per match

Frigg
1.67
Sortland
4.00

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par
Sortland+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Sortland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Frigg or draw
90%
Frigg or Sortland
89%
Draw or Sortland
22%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+
62%
Sortland wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals
98%
Frigg 2+ goals
89%
Frigg 3+ goals
72%
Sortland 1+ goals
77%
Sortland 2+ goals
42%
Sortland 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)
89%
Sortland (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

Sortland away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Sortland defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.92

Sortland attack 1.23 + Frigg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Frigg scores more
78%
level
11%
Sortland scores more
10%

Frigg at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
U. Ferrer
23'
S. Barane
31'
U. Ferrer
50'
U. Ferrer
56'
B. Eie
61'
B. Eie
69'
S. Barane
77'
U. Ferrer
79'
U. Ferrer
90'
U. Ferrer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frigg vs Sortland

Frigg beat Sortland 10-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 24, 2025.

Goals: U. Ferrer (15', 31', 50', 77', 79', 90'), S. Barane (23', 69'), B. Eie (56', 61').

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.