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Sorriso vs Campo Novo — Matogrossense 2 2024

Sorriso
Sorriso
FT
9 – 0
Campo Novo
Campo Novo
5/1/2026Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sorriso84%
×Draw10%
Campo Novo6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sorriso
3.83
Campo Novo
1.04

Sorriso creates 268% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sorriso
3.50
Campo Novo
1.33

allows per match

Sorriso
0.75
Campo Novo
4.17

finishing

Sorriso+0.00on par
Campo Novo+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorriso ↓

Campo Novo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Sorriso or draw
94%
Sorriso or Campo Novo
90%
Draw or Campo Novo
16%

Winning margin

Sorriso wins by 2+
69%
Campo Novo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sorriso 1+ goals
98%
Sorriso 2+ goals
88%
Sorriso 3+ goals
71%
Campo Novo 1+ goals
65%
Campo Novo 2+ goals
28%
Campo Novo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sorriso (draw refunded)
93%
Campo Novo (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorriso at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Campo Novo away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorriso attack 3.50 + Campo Novo defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.83

Campo Novo attack 1.33 + Sorriso defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Sorriso scores more
84%
level
10%
Campo Novo scores more
6%

Sorriso at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Sorriso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matogrossense 2: Sorriso 9–0 Campo Novo

Sorriso beat Campo Novo 9-0 in Matogrossense 2 on May 1, 2026.