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Campo Novo vs Sorriso — Matogrossense 2 2024

Campo Novo
Campo Novo
FT
0 – 4
Sorriso
Sorriso
7/6/2025Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Campo Novo12%
×Draw19%
Sorriso69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campo Novo
0.78
Sorriso
2.17

Sorriso creates 178% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Campo Novo
0.57
Sorriso
2.20

allows per match

Campo Novo
2.14
Sorriso
1.00

finishing

Campo Novo+0.00on par
Sorriso+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campo Novo ↓

Sorriso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Campo Novo or draw
31%
Campo Novo or Sorriso
81%
Draw or Sorriso
88%

Winning margin

Campo Novo wins by 2+
3%
Sorriso wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Campo Novo 1+ goals
54%
Campo Novo 2+ goals
18%
Campo Novo 3+ goals
4%
Sorriso 1+ goals
89%
Sorriso 2+ goals
64%
Sorriso 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Campo Novo (draw refunded)
15%
Sorriso (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campo Novo at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Sorriso away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campo Novo attack 0.57 + Sorriso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Sorriso attack 2.20 + Campo Novo defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Campo Novo scores more
12%
level
19%
Sorriso scores more
69%

Sorriso at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sorriso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matogrossense 2: Campo Novo 0–4 Sorriso

Sorriso beat Campo Novo 4-0 in Matogrossense 2 on July 6, 2025.