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Sorrento vs Rockingham City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Sorrento
Sorrento
FT
3 – 1
Rockingham City
Rockingham City
7/31/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 17Percy Doyle Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sorrento56%
×Draw20%
Rockingham City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sorrento
2.29
Rockingham City
1.46

Sorrento creates 57% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sorrento
1.58
Rockingham City
1.03

allows per match

Sorrento
1.88
Rockingham City
3.00

finishing

Sorrento+0.00on par
Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorrento ↓

Rockingham City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sorrento or draw
76%
Sorrento or Rockingham City
80%
Draw or Rockingham City
44%

Winning margin

Sorrento wins by 2+
35%
Rockingham City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sorrento 1+ goals
90%
Sorrento 2+ goals
66%
Sorrento 3+ goals
40%
Rockingham City 1+ goals
77%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
43%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sorrento (draw refunded)
70%
Rockingham City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorrento at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.88 · 74 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorrento attack 1.58 + Rockingham City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Rockingham City attack 1.03 + Sorrento defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sorrento scores more
56%
level
20%
Rockingham City scores more
24%

Sorrento at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sorrento vs Rockingham City

Sorrento beat Rockingham City 3-1 in Western Australia NPL on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Percy Doyle Reserve A in Perth.