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Rockingham City vs Sorrento — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Rockingham City
Rockingham City
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Sorrento
Sorrento
7/27/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 17SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rockingham City9%
×Draw14%
Sorrento77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockingham City
0.78
Sorrento
2.68

Sorrento creates 244% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rockingham City
0.91
Sorrento
2.91

allows per match

Rockingham City
2.45
Sorrento
0.64

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par
Sorrento+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Sorrento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–212%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw
23%
Rockingham City or Sorrento
86%
Draw or Sorrento
91%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+
2%
Sorrento wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals
54%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
18%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
4%
Sorrento 1+ goals
93%
Sorrento 2+ goals
74%
Sorrento 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)
10%
Sorrento (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Sorrento away — creates 2.91, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 0.91 + Sorrento defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.78

Sorrento attack 2.91 + Rockingham City defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Rockingham City scores more
9%
level
14%
Sorrento scores more
77%

Sorrento at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Rockingham City 0–3 Sorrento

Sorrento beat Rockingham City 3-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at SafeRad Stadium in Perth.