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SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Shahrdari Mahshahr — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
1 – 0
Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
11/17/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht54%
×Draw26%
Shahrdari Mahshahr20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.50
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.80

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 88% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.60

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.33

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
80%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Shahrdari Mahshahr
74%
Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr
46%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
28%
Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
78%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
44%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
19%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
55%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
19%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
73%
Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.60 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
54%
level
26%
Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
20%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Shahrdari Mahshahr

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Shahrdari Mahshahr 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran)).