Shahrdari Mahshahr 0–1 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Shahrdari Mahshahr

FT

0 – 1

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

4/4/2019

Azadegan League · Round 30Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr32%

×Draw30%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari MahshahrExpected goals in this matchSorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.09

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.98

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.09

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

0.67

creates per match

1.25

0.93

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.67

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.25

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.93

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw

62%

Shahrdari Mahshahr or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

70%

Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

68%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+

12%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals

62%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals

26%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals

8%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

66%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

30%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)

46%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.98

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more

32%

level

30%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

38%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff