SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 0–1 Shahin Bushehr

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

FT

0 – 1

Shahin Bushehr

4/23/2019

Azadegan League · Round 33Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium (Eslamshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht48%

×Draw28%

Shahin Bushehr24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SorkhPooshan PakdashtExpected goals in this matchShahin Bushehr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.84

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.31

Shahin Bushehr

0.84

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 56% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

1.66

creates per match

0.69

1.00

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.66

Shahin Bushehr

0.69

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.00

Shahin Bushehr

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Shahin Bushehr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw

76%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Shahin Bushehr

72%

Draw or Shahin Bushehr

52%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

22%

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

73%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

38%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

14%

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

57%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

21%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

67%

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.31

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

48%

level

28%

Shahin Bushehr scores more

24%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff