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Shahin Bushehr vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
1 – 2
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
12/9/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Shahid Beheshti Stadium (Bushehr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahin Bushehr35%
×Draw30%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.06
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
65%
Shahin Bushehr or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
70%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
65%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
14%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
65%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
29%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
9%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
65%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
29%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
50%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
35%
level
30%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
35%

Shahin Bushehr at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Shahin Bushehr 2-1 in Azadegan League on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Shahid Beheshti Stadium (Bushehr).