SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1–1 Rayka Babol

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

FT

1 – 1

Rayka Babol

11/30/2019

Azadegan League · Round 15Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht52%

×Draw26%

Rayka Babol22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SorkhPooshan PakdashtExpected goals in this matchRayka Babol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.90

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.52

Rayka Babol

0.90

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 69% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

1.66

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.66

Rayka Babol

0.80

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.00

Rayka Babol

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Rayka Babol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw

78%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Rayka Babol

74%

Draw or Rayka Babol

48%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

27%

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

78%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

45%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

20%

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

59%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

23%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

70%

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

52%

level

26%

Rayka Babol scores more

22%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff