Rayka Babol 1–2 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Rayka Babol

FT

1 – 2

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

8/2/2020

Azadegan League · Round 32Shohada Sari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rayka Babol40%

×Draw29%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayka BabolExpected goals in this matchSorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.99

Rayka Babol

1.18

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

0.99

Rayka Babol creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

1.08

creates per match

1.25

0.73

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Rayka Babol

1.08

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.25

allows per match

Rayka Babol

0.73

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw

69%

Rayka Babol or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

71%

Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

60%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

17%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

69%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

33%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

12%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

63%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

26%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

57%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayka Babol scores more

40%

level

29%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

31%

Rayka Babol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff