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SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Mes Rafsanjan — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
2 – 2
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
2/19/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Imam Khomeini Stadium (Eslamshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht45%
×Draw26%
Mes Rafsanjan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.44
Mes Rafsanjan
1.09

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Mes Rafsanjan
1.19

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Mes Rafsanjan
1.22

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
71%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Mes Rafsanjan
74%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
55%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
22%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
76%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
42%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
18%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
66%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
30%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
61%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.19 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
45%
level
26%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
29%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Mes Rafsanjan

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht and Mes Rafsanjan drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on February 19, 2019.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium (Eslamshahr).