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Mes Rafsanjan vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 1
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
2/2/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan47%
×Draw25%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.54
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.13

Mes Rafsanjan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.81
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
72%
Mes Rafsanjan or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
75%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
53%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
24%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
79%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
45%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
20%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
68%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
31%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
63%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.81 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
47%
level
25%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
28%

Mes Rafsanjan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Rafsanjan 1–1 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Mes Rafsanjan and SorkhPooshan Pakdasht drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.