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SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
1 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
3/29/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium (Eslamshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht42%
×Draw30%
Mes Kerman28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.17
Mes Kerman
0.89

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 116 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
72%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Mes Kerman
70%
Draw or Mes Kerman
58%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
18%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
69%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
33%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
11%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
59%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
22%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
60%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
42%
level
30%
Mes Kerman scores more
28%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Mes Kerman

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht and Mes Kerman drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium (Eslamshahr).