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Mes Kerman vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
2 – 4
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
9/2/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mes Kerman43%
×Draw30%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.19
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
0.89

Mes Kerman creates 34% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.10
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
73%
Mes Kerman or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
70%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
57%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
19%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
70%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
33%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
12%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
59%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
22%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
61%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
43%
level
30%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
27%

Mes Kerman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Mes Kerman 4-2 in Azadegan League on September 2, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.