SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2–1 Khooneh Be Khooneh

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

FT

2 – 1

Khooneh Be Khooneh

2/6/2019

Azadegan League · Round 22Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht55%

×Draw27%

Khooneh Be Khooneh18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SorkhPooshan PakdashtExpected goals in this matchKhooneh Be Khooneh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.72

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.46

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.72

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 103% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

1.66

creates per match

0.44

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.66

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.44

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.00

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw

82%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Khooneh Be Khooneh

73%

Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh

45%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

28%

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

77%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

43%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

18%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

51%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

16%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

75%

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

55%

level

27%

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

18%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff