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Khooneh Be Khooneh vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
FT
0 – 1
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
9/23/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Shohada Stadium (Babol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh39%
×Draw30%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.14
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
0.99

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.00
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.73
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw
69%
Khooneh Be Khooneh or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
70%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
61%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
16%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
68%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
32%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
11%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
63%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
26%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
55%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
39%
level
30%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
31%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooneh Be Khooneh 0–1 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Khooneh Be Khooneh 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium (Babol).