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SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Gol Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
1 – 1
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
11/4/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht39%
×Draw27%
Gol Gohar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.33
Gol Gohar
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Gol Gohar
1.50

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Gol Gohar
1.00

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
65%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Gol Gohar
73%
Draw or Gol Gohar
61%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
17%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
74%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
38%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
15%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
71%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
36%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
53%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Gol Gohar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gol Gohar attack 1.50 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
39%
level
27%
Gol Gohar scores more
35%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1–1 Gol Gohar

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht and Gol Gohar drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran)).