Gol Gohar 2–2 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht: Result & Stats

Gol Gohar

FT

2 – 2

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

3/16/2019

Azadegan League · Round 28Imam Ali Stadium (Sirjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gol Gohar48%

×Draw26%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gol GoharExpected goals in this matchSorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.99

Gol Gohar

1.48

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

0.99

Gol Gohar creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

0.73

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Gol Gohar

1.67

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.25

allows per match

Gol Gohar

0.73

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw

75%

Gol Gohar or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

74%

Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

52%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

24%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

77%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

43%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

19%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

63%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

26%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

66%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.67 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Gol Gohar defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gol Gohar scores more

48%

level

26%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

25%

Gol Gohar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff