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SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
2 – 1
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
2/8/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht43%
×Draw27%
Baderan Tehran30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.38
Baderan Tehran
1.11

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
70%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Baderan Tehran
73%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
57%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
20%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
75%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
40%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
16%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
67%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
30%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
59%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
43%
level
27%
Baderan Tehran scores more
30%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Baderan Tehran

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Baderan Tehran 2-1 in Azadegan League on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium in Eslamshahr.