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Baderan Tehran vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
1 – 2
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
10/28/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Naft Tehransar (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Baderan Tehran41%
×Draw28%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.27
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.06

Baderan Tehran creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
69%
Baderan Tehran or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
72%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
59%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
18%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
72%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
36%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
14%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
65%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
29%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
57%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
41%
level
28%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
31%

Baderan Tehran at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Baderan Tehran 2-1 in Azadegan League on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Naft Tehransar (Tehran).