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Sony Sugar vs Sofapaka — FKF Premier League 2018

Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
CANC
11:00
Sofapaka
Sofapaka
4/18/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sony Sugar45%
×Draw30%
Sofapaka25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sony Sugar
1.19
Sofapaka
0.81

Sony Sugar creates 47% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 145 away

creates per match

Sony Sugar
1.23
Sofapaka
0.93

allows per match

Sony Sugar
0.68
Sofapaka
1.15

finishing

Sony Sugar+0.00on par
Sofapaka+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sony Sugar ↓

Sofapaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sony Sugar or draw
75%
Sony Sugar or Sofapaka
70%
Draw or Sofapaka
55%

Winning margin

Sony Sugar wins by 2+
20%
Sofapaka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sony Sugar 1+ goals
70%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
33%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
12%
Sofapaka 1+ goals
56%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
19%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
64%
Sofapaka (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sony Sugar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 40 matches

Sofapaka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.15 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sony Sugar attack 1.23 + Sofapaka defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sofapaka attack 0.93 + Sony Sugar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sony Sugar scores more
45%
level
30%
Sofapaka scores more
25%

Sony Sugar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sony Sugar host Sofapaka

April 18, 2020: Sony Sugar take on Sofapaka in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sony Sugar host Sofapaka at Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.