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Sofapaka vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Sofapaka
Sofapaka
FT
0 – 0
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
1/19/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 8Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sofapaka37%
×Draw30%
Sony Sugar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofapaka
1.10
Sony Sugar
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sofapaka
1.25
Sony Sugar
0.97

allows per match

Sofapaka
1.10
Sony Sugar
0.95

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw
66%
Sofapaka or Sony Sugar
70%
Draw or Sony Sugar
63%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+
15%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals
67%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
30%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
10%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
65%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
28%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)
52%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 1.25 + Sony Sugar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sony Sugar attack 0.97 + Sofapaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sofapaka scores more
37%
level
30%
Sony Sugar scores more
34%

Sofapaka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Sofapaka 0–0 Sony Sugar

Sofapaka and Sony Sugar drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on January 19, 2019.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).