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Sony Sugar vs Kisumu All Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
CANC
00:00
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
10/26/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 7Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sony Sugar70%
×Draw19%
Kisumu All Stars10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sony Sugar
2.00
Kisumu All Stars
0.60

Sony Sugar creates 233% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sony Sugar
1.19
Kisumu All Stars
0.55

allows per match

Sony Sugar
0.66
Kisumu All Stars
2.82

finishing

Sony Sugar+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sony Sugar ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sony Sugar or draw
90%
Sony Sugar or Kisumu All Stars
81%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
30%

Winning margin

Sony Sugar wins by 2+
45%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sony Sugar 1+ goals
86%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
59%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
32%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
45%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
12%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
87%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sony Sugar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sony Sugar attack 1.19 + Kisumu All Stars defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.55 + Sony Sugar defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sony Sugar scores more
70%
level
19%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
10%

Sony Sugar at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sony Sugar vs Kisumu All Stars — Match Preview

Sony Sugar face Kisumu All Stars on October 26, 2019 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sony Sugar host Kisumu All Stars at Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.