Kisumu All Stars vs Sony Sugar

Kisumu All Stars

CANC

00:00

Sony Sugar

2/22/2020

FKF Premier League · Round 21Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kisumu All Stars22%

×Draw28%

Sony Sugar50%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisumu All StarsExpected goals in this matchSony Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.33

Kisumu All Stars

0.77

Sony Sugar

1.33

Sony Sugar creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 46 away

0.64

creates per match

0.93

1.73

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars

0.64

Sony Sugar

0.93

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars

1.73

Sony Sugar

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Sony Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw

50%

Kisumu All Stars or Sony Sugar

72%

Draw or Sony Sugar

78%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

6%

Sony Sugar wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

54%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

18%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

4%

Sony Sugar 1+ goals

74%

Sony Sugar 2+ goals

38%

Sony Sugar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

30%

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.64 + Sony Sugar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Sony Sugar attack 0.93 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more

22%

level

28%

Sony Sugar scores more

50%

Sony Sugar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff