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Sony Sugar vs Kariobangi Sharks — FKF Premier League 2018

Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
FT
2 – 0
Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
E. Agwanda 84'
S. Omollo 2'
5/15/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 30Green Stadium (Awendo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sony Sugar41%
×Draw31%
Kariobangi Sharks28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sony Sugar
1.10
Kariobangi Sharks
0.85

Sony Sugar creates 29% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 142 away

creates per match

Sony Sugar
1.19
Kariobangi Sharks
1.05

allows per match

Sony Sugar
0.66
Kariobangi Sharks
1.02

finishing

Sony Sugar+0.00on par
Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sony Sugar ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sony Sugar or draw
72%
Sony Sugar or Kariobangi Sharks
69%
Draw or Kariobangi Sharks
59%

Winning margin

Sony Sugar wins by 2+
17%
Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sony Sugar 1+ goals
67%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
10%
Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
57%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
21%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
60%
Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sony Sugar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.02 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sony Sugar attack 1.19 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.05 + Sony Sugar defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sony Sugar scores more
41%
level
31%
Kariobangi Sharks scores more
28%

Sony Sugar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
S. Omollo
84'
E. Agwanda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Sony Sugar 2–0 Kariobangi Sharks

Sony Sugar beat Kariobangi Sharks 2-0 in FKF Premier League on May 15, 2019.

Goals: S. Omollo (2'), E. Agwanda (84').

The match was played at Green Stadium (Awendo).