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Kariobangi Sharks vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
CANC
00:00
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
3/7/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 23Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks37%
×Draw29%
Sony Sugar34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
1.14
Sony Sugar
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 145 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.39
Sony Sugar
0.93

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.25
Sony Sugar
0.89

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
66%
Kariobangi Sharks or Sony Sugar
71%
Draw or Sony Sugar
63%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
15%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
68%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
32%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
11%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
52%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 145 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.39 + Sony Sugar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sony Sugar attack 0.93 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
37%
level
29%
Sony Sugar scores more
34%

Kariobangi Sharks at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kariobangi Sharks host Sony Sugar

March 7, 2020: Kariobangi Sharks take on Sony Sugar in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kariobangi Sharks host Sony Sugar at Moi International Sports Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.