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Sony Sugar vs Homeboyz — FKF Premier League 2018

Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
FT
2 – 1
Homeboyz
Homeboyz
1/2/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 5Green Stadium (Awendo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sony Sugar42%
×Draw29%
Homeboyz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sony Sugar
1.19
Homeboyz
0.94

Sony Sugar creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 146 away

creates per match

Sony Sugar
1.23
Homeboyz
1.19

allows per match

Sony Sugar
0.68
Homeboyz
1.15

finishing

Sony Sugar+0.00on par
Homeboyz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sony Sugar ↓

Homeboyz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sony Sugar or draw
71%
Sony Sugar or Homeboyz
71%
Draw or Homeboyz
58%

Winning margin

Sony Sugar wins by 2+
18%
Homeboyz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sony Sugar 1+ goals
70%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
33%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
12%
Homeboyz 1+ goals
61%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
24%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
59%
Homeboyz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sony Sugar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 40 matches

Homeboyz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.15 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sony Sugar attack 1.23 + Homeboyz defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Homeboyz attack 1.19 + Sony Sugar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sony Sugar scores more
42%
level
29%
Homeboyz scores more
29%

Sony Sugar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sony Sugar vs Homeboyz

Sony Sugar beat Homeboyz 2-1 in FKF Premier League on January 2, 2019.

The match was played at Green Stadium (Awendo).