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Homeboyz vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
1 – 2
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
M. Ravel 72'
A. Waiswa 90', 24'
5/22/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 32Bukhungu Stadium (Kakamega)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Homeboyz42%
×Draw30%
Sony Sugar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.15
Sony Sugar
0.89

Homeboyz creates 29% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 46 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.41
Sony Sugar
0.93

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.84
Sony Sugar
0.89

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
72%
Homeboyz or Sony Sugar
70%
Draw or Sony Sugar
58%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
18%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
68%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
32%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
11%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
59%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
22%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
60%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 145 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Sony Sugar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sony Sugar attack 0.93 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Homeboyz scores more
42%
level
30%
Sony Sugar scores more
28%

Homeboyz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
A. Waiswa
72'
M. Ravel
90'
A. Waiswa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Homeboyz 1–2 Sony Sugar

Sony Sugar beat Homeboyz 2-1 in FKF Premier League on May 22, 2019.

Goals: A. Waiswa (24', 90'), M. Ravel (72').

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium (Kakamega).