Sonsonate 0–1 Once Municipal: Result & Stats

Sonsonate

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Once Municipal

D. Ascensio 45'

11/1/2020

Primera Division · Apertura - 1st Phase - 4Estadio Anna Mercedes Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sonsonate38%

×Draw27%

Once Municipal35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonsonateExpected goals in this matchOnce Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.22

Sonsonate

1.27

Once Municipal

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 122 away

1.06

creates per match

1.02

1.42

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Sonsonate

1.06

Once Municipal

1.02

allows per match

Sonsonate

1.42

Once Municipal

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sonsonate+0.00on par

Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsonate ↓

Once Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sonsonate or draw

65%

Sonsonate or Once Municipal

73%

Draw or Once Municipal

62%

Winning margin

Sonsonate wins by 2+

17%

Once Municipal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sonsonate 1+ goals

72%

Sonsonate 2+ goals

36%

Sonsonate 3+ goals

14%

Once Municipal 1+ goals

70%

Once Municipal 2+ goals

34%

Once Municipal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sonsonate (draw refunded)

52%

Once Municipal (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsonate at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsonate attack 1.06 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Sonsonate defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sonsonate scores more

38%

level

27%

Once Municipal scores more

35%

Sonsonate at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sonsonate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

D. Ascensio

56'

Roberto González← J. Moreno

56'

D. Buitrago← J. Morán

65'

K. Menjívar← D. Ascensio

65'

A. Roque← M. Cartagena

80'

B. Paz← D. Rugamas

80'

H. Díaz← G. Baires

89'

E. Alvarado Sanchez

90+1'

L. Espinal← A. Rivera

90+1'

R. Vega← M. Morales

Sonsonate

Once

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Da Silva

56'▲Roberto González←▼J. Moreno

56'▲D. Buitrago←▼J. Morán

90+1'▲L. Espinal←▼A. Rivera

Sonsonate substitutes

GonzálezBuitragoEspinal

Manager: B. Martínez

65'▲K. Menjívar←▼D. Ascensio

65'▲A. Roque←▼M. Cartagena

80'▲B. Paz←▼D. Rugamas

80'▲H. Díaz←▼G. Baires

90+1'▲R. Vega←▼M. Morales

Once Municipal substitutes

MenjívarRoquePazDíazVega