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Once Municipal vs Sonsonate — Primera Division 2019

Once Municipal
Once Municipal
CANC
19:00
Sonsonate
Sonsonate
5/3/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 21Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Once Municipal46%
×Draw26%
Sonsonate28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Municipal
1.50
Sonsonate
1.11

Once Municipal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 36 away

creates per match

Once Municipal
1.14
Sonsonate
1.17

allows per match

Once Municipal
1.05
Sonsonate
1.86

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par
Sonsonate+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Sonsonate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw
72%
Once Municipal or Sonsonate
74%
Draw or Sonsonate
54%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+
23%
Sonsonate wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals
78%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
44%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
19%
Sonsonate 1+ goals
67%
Sonsonate 2+ goals
30%
Sonsonate 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)
62%
Sonsonate (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Sonsonate away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Sonsonate defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sonsonate attack 1.17 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Once Municipal scores more
46%
level
26%
Sonsonate scores more
28%

Once Municipal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Once Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Once Municipal vs Sonsonate — Match Preview

Once Municipal face Sonsonate on May 3, 2020 in this Primera Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Once Municipal host Sonsonate at Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.