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Sonsbeck vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sonsbeck
Sonsbeck
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
10/8/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 12Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sonsbeck53%
×Draw20%
SF Hamborn27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonsbeck
2.23
SF Hamborn
1.56

Sonsbeck creates 43% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sonsbeck
1.86
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

Sonsbeck
1.49
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

Sonsbeck+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsbeck ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sonsbeck or draw
73%
Sonsbeck or SF Hamborn
80%
Draw or SF Hamborn
47%

Winning margin

Sonsbeck wins by 2+
32%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sonsbeck 1+ goals
89%
Sonsbeck 2+ goals
65%
Sonsbeck 3+ goals
38%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
79%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
46%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)
66%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsbeck at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsbeck attack 1.86 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.23

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + Sonsbeck defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sonsbeck scores more
53%
level
20%
SF Hamborn scores more
27%

Sonsbeck at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sonsbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonsbeck vs SF Hamborn

SF Hamborn beat Sonsbeck 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark in Sonsbeck.