SF Hamborn 1–0 Sonsbeck: Result & Stats

SF Hamborn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sonsbeck

4/10/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 33Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SF Hamborn43%

×Draw24%

Sonsbeck33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SF HambornExpected goals in this matchSonsbeck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.46

SF Hamborn

1.69

Sonsbeck

1.46

SF Hamborn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 71 away

1.44

creates per match

1.28

1.64

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

SF Hamborn

1.44

Sonsbeck

1.28

allows per match

SF Hamborn

1.64

Sonsbeck

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Sonsbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

Sonsbeck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw

67%

SF Hamborn or Sonsbeck

76%

Draw or Sonsbeck

57%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+

22%

Sonsbeck wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals

82%

SF Hamborn 2+ goals

50%

SF Hamborn 3+ goals

24%

Sonsbeck 1+ goals

77%

Sonsbeck 2+ goals

43%

Sonsbeck 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)

56%

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Sonsbeck away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.93 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + Sonsbeck defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sonsbeck attack 1.28 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SF Hamborn scores more

43%

level

24%

Sonsbeck scores more

33%

SF Hamborn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SF Hamborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff