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Songwe Border United vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

Songwe Border United
Songwe Border United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
8/27/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Songwe Border United11%
×Draw23%
Nyasa Big Bullets66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Songwe Border United
0.55
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.72

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 213% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Songwe Border United
0.53
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.23

allows per match

Songwe Border United
2.20
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.57

finishing

Songwe Border United+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songwe Border United ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–118%
0–215%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Songwe Border United or draw
34%
Songwe Border United or Nyasa Big Bullets
77%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
89%

Winning margin

Songwe Border United wins by 2+
3%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Songwe Border United 1+ goals
42%
Songwe Border United 2+ goals
11%
Songwe Border United 3+ goals
2%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
82%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
51%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)
15%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songwe Border United at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songwe Border United attack 0.53 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Songwe Border United defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Songwe Border United scores more
11%
level
23%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
66%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Songwe Border United 1–3 Nyasa Big Bullets

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Songwe Border United 3-1 in Super League on August 27, 2025.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.